Il futuro del clima in Irlanda

Oggi sull'Irish Independent ci sono alcuni articoli sui possibili e preoccupanti effetti del cambiamento climatico in Irlanda nei prossimi anni.
Ecco il primo.
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Climate change to flood Cork, Dublin and Galway

AT LEAST 300 square kilometres of the country are likely to be permanently flooded by rising seas within 50 years as a result of devastating climate change.

Our biggest cities - Dublin, Cork, Galway and Limerick - are most at risk from the effects of global warming which is set to change our landscape forever.

The first ever study to directly address the implications for Ireland of a 2 degree celsius increase in average global temperatures paints a disturbing picture of what Ireland will look like in coming decades.

"Significant climate change impacts are expected to occur in Ireland over the coming decades, even if the EU target of limiting global climate change to 2 degrees celsius is met," the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report concludes.

Planning and adaptation actions are needed to reduce the worst effects of unavoidable climate change in the coming decades.

The report finds that our climate has already changed - and this is going to continue even at smaller temperature increases.

And time is "rapidly running out," it warns.

Summer temperatures will rise by as much as 3 degrees celsius, causing heat stress to humans and animals. And violent winter storms experienced once every 100 years will now become an annual event.

"It may be too late to prevent a catastrophic sea level rise (of six metres)," it warns.

The UN panel comprising more than 2,000 leading scientists worldwide recently set the two degrees increase as the point at which the planet moved into a potentially catastrophic spiral.

The report, which will be published today discovers what the impact will be for the Irish population, health and the environment.

It predicts severe summer droughts in the south east, frequent flooding, savage winter storms, and contaminated drinking supplies.

Soybean, not currently grown here, is likely to replace potatoes as the main crop in many parts of the country along with corn maize.

Significant climate changes are already happening in Ireland and will continue even below two degrees.

According to the Implications of the EU Climate Protection Target for Ireland report we can expect:

* Significant sea level rise, more intense storms and rainfall events.

* Increased river and coastal flooding.

* Drought in the summer in the east and south east, with increased need for irrigation of crops.

* Drinking water affected by sea water.

* Summer temperatures 2.5 degrees hotter, but they could increase by three degrees.

* Autumn temperatures up 2.7 degrees.

* Higher winter rainfall of between 11-17pc.

* Wettest in the midlands.

* Extinction of vulnerable species requiring cooler conditions such as the Arctic Char fish found in Irish lakes.

* Depletion of fish stocks sensitive to even small changes in temperature. This would include cod.

* Increased frequency of wild fires and pest infestation.

* Low-lying places such as Louth and North Dublin, which have little or no protection from rising seas, could be badly affected by coastal erosion.

* More than 300 square kilometres are at high risk of being inundated by flooding and coastal erosion, especially around our cities.

Two degrees celsius is the point past which there would be "dangerous and irreversible impacts of climate change".

This would lead to the loss of major ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica by 2100 and could severely impact the Gulfstream, the ocean current which gives Ireland its temperate climate. The research team was led by Dr John Sweeney, Dept of Geography, NUI Maynooth and one of the acknowledged foremost European climate change experts.

The report highlights major changes that occurred in Ireland 8,000 years ago, when a relatively sudden influx of fresh water from northern Canada is considered to have temporarily switched of the Gulf Stream flow.

This resulted in an abrupt and widespread cooling event in and around Ireland.

Globally, millions would be at risk of displacement, hunger and disease, as a result of water shortages, coastal flooding and disruption to food production. Ger O'Leary, EPA programme manager, said the findings reinforced the need for strong action to be taken on greenhouse gas emissions reduction.

However, it was not just a matter of reducing emissions, but also of adapting to those changes and impacts that are now unavoidable.

"These must now be taken on board in planning and investments in infrastructure," said Mr O'Leary.

Eamon Ryan, Green Party TD, said people expecting balmier summers forgot about the way natural systems were being changed.

Treacy Hogan

[Modificato da =Donegal= 15/03/2007 12.11]

Il secondo.
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Wake up and smell coffee: our weather are risks real

CLIMATE change is now universally recognised as the biggest environmental threat facing humanity and the planet.

The sceptics have finally been washed away by a tide of sound scientific evidence.

It is also acknowledged by the world's leading scientists that this is not merely a natural cyclical phenomenon, but is happening as a result of industrial and other emissions into the atmosphere.

More than 2,000 scientists on the UN's international climate change committee recently concluded that if average global temperatures increase past 2C we are in real trouble.

What does all of this mean for Ireland? After all, we are used to a reasonably temperate climate.

And do we not already know from previous reports that Ireland's climate is going to change, with the possibility of even more severe storms, flooding and wine growing in a sunnier south east?

Today the first-ever study on the impact of the "2 degree point" is published by the Environmental Protection Agency. It paints a precise picture of how our landscape and way of life will change in coming decades. It is a sound, scientific report devoid of hyperbole, but full of new research being published for the first time today.

The team of scientists was led by Dr John Sweeney, head of the Department of Geography at NUI Maynooth. He is acknowledged as one of Europe's foremost experts on climate change and the author of the Government's strategy to combat the looming crisis.

Dr Sweeney's report today states quite simply, and starkly, that significant climate change impacts are expected to occur in Ireland over the coming decades even if the EU target of limiting global climate change to 2C is met. Planning and adaptation actions are needed to reduce the worst effects, he says.

This is not a report about ifs and buts. This is the real deal, warning the public, planners and politicians to wake up and smell the coffee. Climate change is taking place in Ireland, and the pace is picking up.

There's a lot of gloom and doom in the report, echoing predictions from scientists in other countries.

It should not be dismissed as scaremongering.

The report makes clear that climate change is nothing out of science fiction that may or may not happen in a 100 years.

The growing season is significantly extended, and the winters are undoubtedly far milder than before.

Over the next few decades the changes will be far more pronounced and potentially catastrophic if the melting of the ice caps and mountain glaciers continue.

Treacy Hogan

Il terzo.
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How your way of life will change if our green plans fail

CEAD mile Failte to Ireland, 2050.

Take a look around at your new home.

It's a bit of a squeeze - we were always a small country but you might have heard we've lost quite a bit of land over the past few years. Flooding, of course, and then a few nice towns have fallen into the sea, too. Poor old Wexford.

You should try and squeeze in a visit to Waterford soon - it's not long for this world.

Bring your malaria tablets, though, the mosquitos in that part of the world are vicious little yokes.

We used to call it the sunny south east, now it's just 'New Wexico'.

It's still a great place for a sun holiday but it's very pricey now, though, especially since the Mediterranean shut down - and all the other former sun destinations, now that you mention it.

But the councils have to find the money somewhere for fighting all those forest fires and putting up flood defences.

Taxes are getting higher all the time.

You might have noticed that the fields aren't quite as green as they were once famed to be. We try our best but these irrigation systems are so expensive to run, and when you throw in the price of the fresh water, well, we're lucky to be growing anything at all.

Our grandparents sang about the 40 shades of green - now we're pretty much down to a single universal colour of muddy yellow ochre.

Not that we should be complaining, really.

All that yellow means we can still grow our own food - for now. Who knows what we'll be eating if the temperature soars beyond the 2C?

It was nice to have a bit of choice when it came to the food, like we used to have in the olden days though - we're all getting a bit fed up with corn on the cob to be honest with you. The Government persuaded us that maize was the next big thing and sure enough, it grows well here. But you'd miss the old potato, all the same.

Soya does well here, too. One of the GM factories is trying to grow some new variety of soya that tastes of potatoes, here's hoping.

I was in a fancy restaurant in Dublin the other night and the special gourmet menu was out of this world - cod and chips, would you believe?

No idea where they managed to find them in this day and age - not in Ireland, that's for sure. You wouldn't believe what the bill came to but, God, it was worth every single penny.

Would you believe there was a time once, when there were towns and villages in this country that survived on the bounty of the ocean? That was before rising sea levels wiped out the coastal towns and villages. And that was back when there were fish. Not much will live in our seas these days.

Certainly no cod or herring, or even haddock. A bit of bass if you're lucky to get it - but there's nobody fishing these days. It's just not worth their while.

Your best bet is to get a rod and go out yourself - the Lake of Allen is a good spot for a bit of pike.

There's great fishing in the midlands these days, if you can face the weather and the sogginess - they get an awful lot of rain in winter so be sure to bring your waders.

It's a funny thing but another watersport everybody has taken to lately is diving. It's become a bit of a national obsession - gazing down into the murky waters at all that coastal property lying at the bottom of the ocean.

Pride comes before a fall and we all have a grim laugh now about how those SUV-driving Celtic Tiger cubs never saw that particular fall coming.

Some of them have just about paid off their mortgages on those piles of rubble.

Sad, really.

KEVIN MYERS

molto cinicamente posso solo dire di avere culo.... che tra 50-60 anni saro vecchio a sufficienza per morire in pace.
certo che preferirei non vedere scempi di questo genere..... che purtroppo secondo me ci saranno al 300%